The College Confidence Crisis

For decades, the advice was simple. Go to college, and the rest follows. That belief appears to be collapsing. In a 2025 NBC News poll, just 33% of Americans said a four-year degree is worth the cost, down sharply from 49% in 2017, while 63% said graduates leave school in debt without job-specific skills. Pew Research found the same skepticism even among people who already have degrees. Only 32% of college graduates say the investment was worth it if they had to take out loans to make it happen.

Debt is climbing and campuses are closing

The average federal student loan balance now sits at $39,547, part of a $1.69 trillion federal debt load carried by more than 42 million borrowers. Tuition dependency has left plenty of schools exposed to a shrinking pool of applicants: sixteen private colleges closed in 2025, eight more have shut down already in 2026, and a Huron Consulting analysis found that 442 of the nation’s roughly 1,700 private nonprofit four-year colleges are at risk of closing or merging within the next decade. 

What the trades pay instead 

A union apprenticeship pays while you learn. Department of Labor data shows wages climbing from an average of $18 an hour at entry to $32 an hour at completion, a 77% increase. Some union locals do even better: apprentices in one five-year electrical program earn more than $320,000 in base wages before they ever finish training, with zero student debt attached. And once the apprenticeship program is complete, starting salaries in many trades land well above the national median. The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts electrical power-line installers, one common apprenticeship track, at a median of $92,560 a year, and journeyworkers in some trades report total compensation, including benefits, well above that.

But good pay hasn’t solved the bigger problem facing unions: not enough people are applying to fill open apprenticeship seats. 

Millions of jobs, not enough workers

By 2030, an estimated 2.1 million skilled trades positions could go unfilled. Electrician jobs are projected to grow 9% through 2034, three times the average for all occupations, with HVAC technician roles close behind at 8%. Construction needs roughly 349,000 net new workers in 2026, a number expected to climb toward 456,000 in 2027 just to keep pace with demand. Part of the shortfall comes from retirement. More than one in five construction workers is already over 55, and for every five tradespeople who retire, only two replacements enter the field. Registered apprenticeships have grown to roughly 680,000 active apprentices nationwide, nearly double the total from a decade ago, but the pipeline still isn’t producing new workers fast enough to close that gap. Left unaddressed, it could cost the economy as much as $1 trillion a year.

Part of the urgency comes from what these workers are actually being asked to build. Electricians and HVAC technicians are the ones wiring and cooling the data centers powering the AI boom. Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned that the country’s manufacturing ambitions are running into a labor wall, and Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison put it more bluntly: “AI can’t climb a ladder to change the batteries in your smoke detector.”

Washington has taken notice. The Department of Labor issued $84 million in grants in mid-2025 and another $145 million in January 2026 to expand registered apprenticeships nationwide, part of a broader push toward 1 million active apprentices. Private money is also being invested. BlackRock committed $100 million to a “Future Builders” initiative for trades training, and the Lowe’s Foundation pledged $250 million over the next decade to train 250,000 workers in plumbing, carpentry, and electrical work. But funding alone doesn’t fill a job site. It takes people walking through the door of a union hall and applying, and right now, not enough of them are.

The trust is already there

Trust isn’t the obstacle. In LaborStrong’s own 2025 Apprenticeship Perceptions Index, 93% of Americans said union-led apprenticeships prepare people for stable, long-term careers, a level of confidence few institutions in America can claim today. More than half said union training beats non-union alternatives, and a majority called apprenticeship careers more recession-proof than a college degree. A union apprenticeship also comes with mentorship from working journeyworkers and completion rates that outperform unaffiliated programs, built on decades of collective bargaining that keeps wages and safety standards high.

None of this means college is disappearing, and nobody serious is arguing it should. But the “college for all” assumption that shaped a generation of career advice doesn’t match what the data, or the job market, is telling people anymore. Apprenticeships pay from day one and skip the debt entirely. They also lead into industries that are short on workers right now.

From belief to enrollment

That message is landing. More than half of Gen Z workers say they’re seriously considering blue-collar or skilled trade work, and they’re not alone: from high schoolers weighing their options to career changers looking for a second start, more people are finding their way to the trades. Funding is starting to follow that interest, and the jobs are already open. What’s still missing is enough of them signing up.

For union leaders and training directors, persuasion isn’t the job anymore. Enrollment is. Americans already believe the trades deliver skills, pay, and stability that college often can’t match. What’s left is turning that belief into applications. That means recruiters in high schools before guidance counselors hand out another brochure, and clear on-ramps for career changers and veterans, plus women who haven’t traditionally seen themselves in these programs. Every unfilled apprenticeship seat is a job site short a worker and a family short a debt-free career.